A new arrangement for U.S. naval access to Cam Ranh Bay may well be in the offing. The strategic value of the alliance remains high, according to theCongressional Research Service: *** U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies economic importance associated with the ocean is tremendous and manifold. Post-Mao China, with the emergence of Deng Xiaoping as paramount leader, became a major constructive presence dedicated to economic development fueled by opening the Middle Kingdom to the region and the world. What is more important from a strategic viewpoint, however, is that global energy projections that the EIA issues in the International Energy Outlook, issued in October 2021, make it clear that China and Asia will have a sharply growing dependence on MENA and Gulf petroleum exports that may well extend through 2050. by Geoffrey Hartman TheSouth China Seais one of the most important economic and environmental regions in the world. "American aircraft, this is the PLA air force. Burma, however, is a potential bright spot for the U.S. position in continental Southeast Asia. In a meeting attended by the foreign ministers of 26 nations from the broader region, Clinton simply asserted that the South China Sea was subject to multiple territorial claims and a multinational mechanism should be established to find a peaceful diplomatic solution. When China moved a massive oilrig, theHaiyang Shiyou 981, into Vietnams exclusive economic zone in 2014, Vietnam had limited options to respond, at either the low end or the high. US and China is engaging in this sea to control all significance. Washington, DC 20036. In such a complex environment, it is important to have well-established, recognizable rules of international law. Importance of South China Sea The South China Sea is a busy international waterway, one of the main arteries of global trade worth more than $5 trillion and is growing year on year. The United States has an interest in seeing that these partners maintain their strategic autonomy, but capacity building efforts to help them resist coercion are not keeping pace with Chinas growing capabilities. In my mind, this leads to 3 key questions to base any form of analysis from: In order to understand the contention of the South China Sea and its significance, it is firstly imperative to understand the geopolitical importance of Asia, which has given rise to Chinese pre-eminence; enabling its rise to contemporary major political power on the global stage. The United States has formally objected to Chinas South China Sea maritime claims. Inconsistent messaging and policiesincluding on freedom of navigation and routine presence operationshave also led to confusion in the region. in the northeast, the South China Sea is one of the most important trade routes in the world. The 2022 Philippine Election: Trouble for Democracy and Foreign Relations Ahead? Pexels India-China Indo-Pacific South China Sea Signalling is important international relations. Almost all the East Asian countries are dependent on this sea. The diplomatic tempest at the ARF came when U.S. security attention was preoccupied with ongoing military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the global counterterrorism campaign with Osama bin Laden still at large. Since 2009, China has growingly asserted its influence over the SCS by enforcing an annual fishing ban, conducting regular maritime patrols, undertaking scientific surveys and conducting military exercises in the disputed islands and waters. The two countries elevated bilateral ties to an extensive strategic partnership in 2013 and Japan is in the midst of donating to Vietnam six patrol vessels (for use by the coast guard and fisheries ministry). Southeast Asia will inevitably be rendered subordinate and compliant to Chinas will. First, the United States should feel more confident to pressure the junta on human rights concerns. The second will analyze the strategic landscape in and around the South China Sea. The credibility of U.S. security support for allies and partners will be shredded. Chinas island outposts will increase this advantage as Chinese aircraft, ships, and paramilitary vessels will be able to rest and resupply in the southern portion of the South China Sea. Therefore, the SCS has geopolitical and geostrategic importance for the energy and economic security of China and East Asian countries; but also for the USA as $1.2 trillion of its trade moves through the waters. Cooperation on areas of shared interest is important not only to the United States, but also to China. Yet, it was and is all of that. The South China Sea is considered a "near sea" and its geographic proximity to the mainland is central to the China's strategic imagination and threat perception. When Beijing froze banana imports from the Philippines in the midst of the Scarborough Shoal standoff in 2012, it sent a clear message to its Southeast Asian neighbors: economic ties would not be immune from diplomatic contretemps. By contrast, China views. It remains entirely plausible that any Chinese strategy could have a long term goal of possessing the power to deny US or western warships access to the SCS, with China largely laying claim to most of the area as it's own waters. In a context of great power competition, the South China Sea (SCS) has emerged as an arena of U.S.-China strategic competition. That claim remained shrouded in a calculated fog of ambiguity until 2010 when Secretary of State Clinton addressed the status of the South China Sea and its sea-lanes at a meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi. A third of the world's shipping passes through it, its fisheries are critical sources of food for millions of people. Russian long-range aviation, despite performing frequent combat missions against Ukraine, is also conducting Pacific patrols, sometimes together with Chinese H-6K strategic bombers (Nikkei Asia, November 30). Moving forward, freedom of navigation and routine presence operations should be executed on a regular basis to demonstrate U.S. resolve to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows. In sum, the United States has built and maintained a dense network of security links and obligations throughout East and Southeast Asia all sustained by regular contact with the Seventh Fleet as it transits the region via the South China Sea. Those bases may be vulnerable, but before and at the outbreak of hostilities, they will allow China to project power deep into maritime Southeast Asia, to threaten commercial and military passage through the sea, and to impose and enforce an air defense identification zone. by M A Hossain 3 March 2023 The geostrategic significance of Bangladesh derives from its strategic location at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia, endowing it with a pivotal role in the re South China Sea and possible options. Thailand, of course, has been an important security partner for the United States. With the incoming administration likely to grapple early with South China Sea issues, the CSIS Southeast Asia Program, directed by Dr. Amy Searight, worked in collaboration with other Asia colleagues at CSISDr. The largest and most powerful of these . The risk to Chinese power projection lies predominantly with US interests. The United States will continue to stand with our allies and partners to uphold the order that we helped build, Pencesaid. The growing size and capability of the Chinese air force, navy, and coast guard allow Beijing to consistently monitor and exercise de facto control over most of the South China Sea. This geo strategic significance is the main reason behind the fact that China and other territorial stakeholders are contesting to gain control of these maritime lane. In May, Australia and Singapore agreed to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. In the defense realm, the CSP paves the way for more bilateral military exercises, greater Singaporean access to Australian training facilities, enhanced intelligence-sharing arrangements and expanded people-to-people exchanges. Generally, oil and minerals move north, and food and manufactured goods move south. Because of its location, this sea is extremely strategic because it connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans (Strait of Malacca). All countries want positive economic and security ties with both China and the United States. The sea is rich in resources and holds significant strategic and political importance. As . This is the first of three short essays examining the South China Sea as a first order strategic problem for the United States. Giving ground on vital interests in Asia will not encourage greater cooperation on global issues. America has formal defense/security alliances with five Asian countries: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, and Australia. It threatens the sovereignty of many nations and endangers the prosperity of the world. China tries to control the waters by using fishing vessels that are part of the Chinese maritime militia, coast guard ships, and naval vessels to harass other countries boats and deny access to this key area. It has deep ties with the military, which still dominates key parts of the government, and is a major player in the economy. The same cannot be said for China and a maritime Southeast Asia that aligns with the United States. Ownership claims to them are used to bolster claims to the surrounding sea and its resources. "First, South China Sea is important for the strategic patrol of Chinese SSBN [nuclear ballistic missile submarine], which needs to enter west Pacific Ocean for its nuclear deterrence against the US," he explained. All this will occur in a region that is increasingly the vibrant center of the world economy. South China Sea or even some part of its strategically significant zones will provide the sovereign nation state significant seat in global trade agreements. The Thai people are lurching towards a new political arrangement, a process that Thais have to see through for themselves. Chinas significant increase in spending and capability of its maritime forces is of note. Meanwhile, Japan is providing ten new multi-role vessels to the Philippine Coast Guard; Manila is also interested in procuring used P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft from Tokyo. Thus, it is said that the South China Sea could be the battleground of World War III. Total fish stocks have been depleted by 70 to 95 percent since the 1950s. In addition to conventional concerns about territorial defense, the South China Sea is also important for China because of its nationalist claims to all of the tiny land . U.S. access to the military facilities on the South China Seas southern flank, however, would shift the regions balance of power in Americas favor. Beijing has also been careful to avoid estranging Aung San Suu Kyi and adopted a largely pragmatic approach to the countrys transition away from authoritarian rule. It is unlikely that any states in the region possess the wealth and power to oppose this, although there is always a realistic possibility that they may receive backing from the USA if it is in their interests. 1994 The Convention on the Law of the Sea goes into effect. More than 50% of world trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, the Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait over the islands and waters of the South China Sea. As a result of this shift, China now seeks to control sea lines of communication, ensure national prosperity and continue economic growth and national greatness; the South China Sea plays a massive part in this. Any such assertion must rest on an understanding that critical U.S. national interests, including both economic and security interests, are at stake and at risk. It will always have an eye on the need to protect itself against attack from the sea, but there's much more to China's vulnerability than potential invasion or bombardment. The United States needs to maintain a difficult balancing act, supporting the democratic aspirations of the Thai people while remaining a security and economic partner of choice for the elites and armed forces. The 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea is an international treaty that sets out importantmaritime rules. With the National League for Democracy now in power in Naypyidaw, China cannot rely on Burma as an automatic ally. World. If this sounds overstated or overwrought it is not. To counter Chinas efforts to control the South China Sea, the United States needs a sustainable strategy to bolster its own capabilities, work more effectively with capable allies and partners, and strengthen the regional order. U.S. leaders should not be afraid of tension in the U.S.-China relationship. . But if China continues to play its cards wrong and if the United States proves itself a dependable partner, American warships could one day regularly operate out of Cam Ranh Bay, the strategically located port-of-call, for the first time since the Vietnam War. Leung, The Consequences of Conquest: Why Indo-Pacific Power Hinges on Taiwan, United States vs China: from Partnership to Antagonism - Interview with Alfredo Toro Hardy, How the Ukraine War changes Global Geopolitics, What The Economist omits to address in President Xi's vision of a global security order, Armenia: Trapped in Between Interview with Gayane Novikova, How Chinas COVID Policy Reversal Impacts Globally: an interview with Neeraj Singh Manha, Marcos-Xi Durian Diplomacy Climbs to Higher Gear, Is the EU Really Willing to Enlarge in the Western Balkans? Although ultimately unsuccessful in Vietnam, America emerged in a surprisingly advantageous strategic position in Southeast Asia with alliances intact with Thailand and the Philippines and friendly ties with Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. This order embodies certain foundational political principles respect for international law, preservation of the real sovereign independence of regional states, a refusal to legitimate unilateral territorial expansion, and the unconditional acceptance of the sea-lanes as a global commons. Not taking a position on sovereignty allows the United States to flexibly intervene in the South China Sea to defend its interests and international rules and norms, while undercutting Chinese attempts to paint U.S. actions as a threat to Beijings sovereignty. Check out the linked article on the Belt and road initiative now. Islands in the South China Sea The islands of the South China Sea can be grouped into two island chains. Importantly, the Air Forces presence on Luzon, perhaps to be followed by regular naval rotations in Subic Bay, will put the United States in a better position to quickly seal up the Luzon Strait, which links the South China Sea to the Philippine Sea and the wider Pacific Ocean. From a strategic perspective, the geographical significance of the SCS is that whoever has dominance over it, dominates the future of East Asia. These factors combined give a strategic importance to the South China Sea that has led to numerous states Brunei, the People's Republic of China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam each pressing their own claims to . Beyond that, there are a variety of formal security cooperation agreements with Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. The USA have a direct connection to the area through various allies, connections and trade, and this will naturally continue. U.S. allies and partners in the region are drawing lessons from Chinese coercive behavior and the limited U.S. response to it, and some are beginning to doubt U.S. resolve and adjust their foreign policies in response. The Obama administration has made modest gains in this regard, but it will be up for to the next president to seize that opportunity and ensure that Southeast Asias future is prosperous, peaceful and free. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW The South China Sea is the gateway to access to the world ocean, the nexus for navigation as well as a security fence for several littoral states. This principled stand allows the United States to defend its interests without embroiling itself in the murky sovereignty claims at the heart of the South China Sea dispute. Vietnam's coastline bordering the South China Sea is over 3,000 kilometers long.

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